Financial plan · management forecast
Three years from launch, three volume scenarios, and the price as a visible lever.
Years run to 31 July. FY27 (February to July 2027) is build and pilot with negligible revenue. Volumes are management targets with no demand evidence yet; costs are fully loaded; VAT is deducted from FY29 when registration is assumed. The plan does not reach profitability at £49: the SEIS round funds the pilot and the first full cycle, and a further raise in 2028 is assumed.
Net revenue and EBITDA by year
Base case · £49 · volumes as planned
Paid applications
FY28600
FY292,500
FY307,000
Net revenue
FY28£35k
FY29£144k
FY30£475k
EBITDA
FY28−£146k
FY29−£243k
FY30−£330k
Runway from a £250k SEIS close
Oct 2028
Net proceeds of roughly £229k after platform fees cover the pilot and the first Phase 1 cycle, with about £27k left at the September 2028 intake. A seed round in 2028 is assumed in every scenario.
Assumptions behind the numbers, and what is not in them
Volumes and price
- Paid three-university applications: 600 / 2,500 / 7,000 (base). Downside 50%, upside 150%. Management targets; no demand data yet.
- Blended gross fee £57.50 at the £49 price point: 20% add a university, 15% take priority. VAT at 20% deducted from FY29 in every sensitivity. Registration timing is held fixed for comparison; higher prices and volumes may require earlier registration. Priority handling is assumed to change queue order without extra labour; this needs pilot validation.
- Partner enrolments 0 / 60 / 350 at a flat £400. Requires agreements that do not yet exist; excluded in the downside.
Costs
- Adviser time 35 minutes per university, 3.2 universities per application including average add-ons, £17 per hour fully loaded; card fees 1.5% + 20p; software £1.50; refunds £1.50; acquisition £15 per paid application.
- Fixed costs £150k / £260k / £450k: founder from graduation (mid-2027), one operations hire from launch, contracted engineering, compliance, insurance, schools outreach. Downside trims 10%; upside adds 10%.
- Crowdfunding platform costs of about 8.5% of gross proceeds are deducted from the raise, not from operating costs.
Excluded
- No finance-referral, visa-service or FX revenue at any point in the forecast.
- No grant income, although UK innovation and university enterprise grants are being pursued.
- No revenue in FY27; the pilot cohort is served at cost to document routes.